Risk Management ProcessThe intent of Risk Analysis is to understand the level of a risk(s) by:

  • Considering the likelihood of the root cause occurrence;
  • Identifying the possible consequences in terms of performance, schedule, and cost; and
  • Identifying the risk level using the Risk Reporting Matrix.

Risk analysis is the activity of examining each identified risk to refine the description of the risk, isolate the cause, determine the effects, aid in setting risk mitigation priorities. It refines each risk in terms of its likelihood, its consequence, and its relationship to other risk areas or processes. Analysis begins with a detailed study of the risks that have been identified. The objective is to gather enough information about future risks to judge the root causes, the likelihood, and the consequences if the risk occurs. The frequently used term “Risk Assessment” includes the distinct activities of Risk Identification and risk analysis. [1]

Risk analysis sequence of tasks include: [1]

  • Develop probability and consequence scales by allocating consequence thresholds against the Work Breakdown Structure (WBS) or other breakout;
  • Assign a probability of occurrence to each risk using the criteria in the Risk Reporting Matrix.
  • Determine consequence in terms of Performance, Schedule, and/or Cost impact using defined criteria;
  • Document the results in the program Risk Register.

Risk = Rate of occurrence * The impact of the event 

Performance Considerations [1]
Is there an impact to technical performance and to what level? If so, this risk has a performance consequence. These risks generally have associated schedule and cost impacts, but should be carried as a performance risk.

Schedule Considerations [1]
Is there an impact to schedule performance and to what level? If the risk does not have a first order performance impact, then ask this question. If the risk does impact the critical path, then it impacts both schedule and cost, but should be carried as a schedule risk.

  • Evaluating baseline schedule inputs (durations and network logic);
  • Incorporating technical assessment and schedule uncertainty inputs to the program schedule model;
  • Evaluating impacts to program schedule based on technical team assessment;
  • Performing schedule analysis on the program Integrated Master Schedule (IMS), incorporating the potential impact from all contract schedules and associated government activities;
  • Quantifying schedule excursions reflecting the effects of cost risks, including resource constraints;

Cost (C) Considerations [1]
Does the risk only impact life-cycle cost? If so, with no performance or schedule impacts, the risk is a cost risk, and may impact estimates and assessments such as:

  • Building on technical and schedule assessment results;
  • Translating performance and schedule risks into life-cycle cost;
  • Deriving life-cycle cost estimates by integrating technical assessment and schedule risk impacts on resources;
  • Establishing budgetary requirements consistent with fiscal year planning;
  • Determining if the adequacy and phasing of funding supports the technical and acquisition approaches;
  • Providing program Life-Cycle Cost (LCC) excursions from near-term budget execution impacts and external budget changes and constraints; and
  • Documenting the cost basis and risk impacts.

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Updated: 7/29/2017

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