Schedule Development

Schedule Risk

Schedule risk is the likelihood of failing to meet schedule plans and the effect of that failure. It exists in every schedule and is impossible to predict, with complete confidence, the length of time necessary to complete an activity, meet a milestone, or deliver a system. Little information exists in the early phases of a program, and planners must rely on personal experience, lessons learned, best practices, and the estimates of experts. As a program progresses through the acquisition cycle, more information becomes available. Schedules developed in the later phases of a program are based on more information and analyses, but they still lack complete certainty. Uncertainty introduces the element of risk into the planning process.

Definition: Schedule risk is the likelihood of failing to meet schedule plans and the effect of that failure. [1]

Schedule Risk Assessment

When creating a schedule or when determining overall program risk, the Program Manager (PM) must assess the risk associated with the schedule. One technique for assessing this schedule risk involves estimating contributions for each activity’s duration and aggregating these distributions using a Monte Carlo simulation or other analytical tools. The resulting program-level schedule is then analyzed to determine the actual schedule risk and to identify the schedule risk drivers.

This technique uses a range of times that it will take to complete each activity instead of single-point estimates. This approach results in a more realistic estimate of schedule risk because it accounts for much of the uncertainty inherent in the use of single-point estimates. Their use invariably leads to underestimating the time required to complete the program and, therefore, schedule overruns, primarily because the point estimates do not adequately address the uncertainty inherent in the individual activities.

This range of values for each activity defines a probability distribution for the duration of the activity. These distributions are then combined to determine the program-level schedule estimate. This approach enables PMs to estimate early in a program if there is a significant likelihood of overrunning the program schedule and by how much. It also identifies program activities that are on the “highest risk path.”

This technique can be used in any acquisition phase, beginning with the completion of the first Statement of Work (SOW). The schedule probability distribution function for each key activity should be developed as soon as the activity is included in the master schedule. The distribution functions should be periodically reviewed and revised at least once per phase, if necessary.

This technique should be applied by a small government-industry team consisting of schedule analysts and technical experts who understand the significance of previous risk performance assessments. Each major program review should discuss schedule risk.

Benefits of Understanding Schedule Risk

Understanding project schedule risks is crucial for effective project management and can have several advantages. Some of the main benefits are as follows:

  1. Improved Planning: Early in the project, scheduling concerns can be identified and understood, which allows for improved resource allocation and planning. The project can be completed within the established parameters since it enables project managers to set realistic schedules and milestones.
  2. Accurate Forecasting: Project managers can more precisely forecast the project’s completion date and associated expenses by identifying potential scheduling hazards. This reduces unforeseen delays and budget overruns while assisting in managing stakeholders’ expectations.
  3. Proactive Risk Mitigation: Project teams can take proactive steps to reduce or mitigate potential scheduling hazards once they have a clear grasp of such risks. This may entail creating backup plans, providing more resources, or modifying the project timetable to account for unexpected delays.
  4. Resource Optimization: Project managers can allocate resources more effectively by being aware of schedule hazards. They can give high-priority jobs the highest priority, allocate resources to these tasks, and make sure that the appropriate resources are accessible when they are needed.
  5. Better Communication: Team members, stakeholders, and other project participants can communicate more effectively when aware of scheduling risks. Transparent communication regarding anticipated difficulties promotes teamwork and aids in gaining the support and cooperation of all parties concerned.
  6. Realistic Goal Setting: Project teams can set more attainable and realistic goals when they are aware of the risks associated with the timetable. Too tight deadlines might result in burnout, lowered standards, and project failure. A clear understanding of the risks aids in creating demanding but doable goals.
  7. Improved Decision-Making: Throughout the project, wise choices can be made thanks to knowledge of scheduling risks. It allows project managers to alter and change direction swiftly, lessening the effects of potential delays and disruptions.
  8. Early Issue Detection: Project teams can spot problems and bottlenecks before they develop into serious issues by understanding scheduling risks. This aids in corrective action taking at an early stage and stops problems from becoming significant bottlenecks.
  9. Enhanced Stakeholder Confidence: When stakeholders, such as clients, investors, and management, realize that potential schedule risks have been identified and properly managed, they have more faith in the project. Increased backing and ongoing financial commitment to the project may result from this.
  10. Reduced Project Failures: Project failure is less likely when scheduling risks are recognized and aggressively managed. The likelihood of a project’s success and on-time delivery increases when risks are addressed systematically.

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Updated: 7/21/2023

Rank: G1

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